November 20, 2009

Google Chrome OS Optimism

There’s already some hope for Google Chrome OS. An OS that’s not even released yet.

Eric, it’s “DoubleClick” not “DoubleClicks”.

I’ve lived long enough to watch operating systems come and go. Does that make me a pessimist? I read this on MarketGuru today, a new stock market social network:

I think any bet against a Google product not working well is a risky one. Google has got such brand admiration that anything they launch will be adopted quickly. Just look at all the hype around Google Wave.. which looks like a pretty lame product to me.. but people are standing in line for invites. As for red Hat – as I understand it they wrap up Linux in a set of tools that makes it easier to use. I think Chrome OS could give them trouble. Then again, Chrome will bust the OS market wide open creating plenty of opportunity for everyone.. Interesting times, no doubt :)

I figure my response there is worth posting (with some modifications) here on StockmarketSoup.com:

Google cancels projects all the time, like that 3D world that didn’t work out. They can afford to be scatterbrained when they hold the key to Adwords.

Chrome OS Resistance

Privacy. They already collect and scan all your personal email (Gmail) and your surfing activity (Adsense “interest based” advertising) and there is resistance. But the operating system is a bigger deal for most people, and for businesses privacy is often a requirement. I found this EFF quote from 2006, I think it fits here:

Coming on the heels of serious consumer concern about government snooping into Google’s search logs, it’s shocking that Google expects its users to now trust it with the contents of their personal computers,” said EFF Staff Attorney Kevin Bankston. “Unless you configure Google Desktop very carefully, and few people will, Google will have copies of your tax returns, love letters, business records, financial and medical files, and whatever other text-based documents the Desktop software can index.

Outages. Is your data trapped in the cloud during an outage? Is your software crippled if your connection to the web fails?

Commitment. Google Gears, Google Desktop, did they ever catch on? Not really. I couldn’t even find an app (that worked) to check my Adsense earnings. Take iGoogle for example, does anyone use it? If you read the fine print, Google says something like: “We are not responsible for these apps, use them at your own risk.” Why should you trust a 3rd party app developer with your data if Google doesn’t even stand behind the apps? Operating systems and browsers take years of commitment, even if you have a superior product. I checked my stats last night, Chrome has 5% for last week, and MSIE is still #1. After all these years, Firefox is still way behind IE.

Predictions

Yes, Wave gets hype but I think it will fail (like Google Chat) because nobody knows what it is, or how to explain it, not even hardcore tech geeks. From what I’m hearing, it sounds like a Wiki with extra AJAX. (Edit: I didn’t realize Google Chat is now integrated with Gmail.)

Probably Google Chrome OS will be a nice solution for some consumers if it’s ad supported and they can give away netbooks for free with a data plan. But what about the machinist who needs Windows drivers for his tools, or the architect who needs Autocad, etc.

Even if 90% of the needs of most users are taken care of if you can provide them with an office suite, an email client, a browser, and a media player, then there will still be a remaining 10% of their needs, potentially critical needs, that are not met. Unfortunately these remaining 10% are spread across a wide spectrum of applications: thousands of applications running the gamut from games to specialized accounting software for French farms, via Italian encyclopedias, German tax software, child education software, banking software, in-house software representing years of development, etc. It is the availability of all this software that makes Windows so compelling and its monopoly so strong.

Red Hat

Red Hat is not just a wrap. Red Hat is the #1 contributor to Linux and I believe they supervise/authorize a lot of the code changes. So even if you’re using another flavor of Linux, I believe most of the code is from Red Hat. They’re able to outpace Microsoft because it’s open source, essentially free labor supervised by Red Hat, paid for by other companies, like IBM, adding something like 20,000 lines of code each day. If you are a business or government and you need a proven, secure operating system that won’t crash, right now Red Hat is your best choice.